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  • Laws
    17 November 2008, 3:36 pm
    Filed under: innovation, marketing | Tags: , , , , ,

    Good advice from Nicholas Carr:

    There’s something about the crisp autumn air that brings out the philosopher in Mark Zuckerberg. At this week’s Web 2.0 Summit, the Facebook founder mused, according to Saul Hansell of the New York Times, “I would expect that next year, people will share twice as much information as they share this year, and [the] next year, they will be sharing twice as much as they did the year before.”

    Hansell dubs this Zuckerberg’s Law. But I believe it’s actually Zuckerberg’s Second Law. Zuckerberg’s First Law, enunciated on another fall day almost precisely one year ago, took this elemental form: “Once every hundred years media changes.”

    Zuckerberg’s Second Law is certainly superior to Zuckerberg’s First Law, if only because it is not quite so obviously false. If you’re going to make up big laws, it’s always best to make them up about the future rather than the past.

    Of course, Carr may be being a little harsh. Sure Zuckerberg was patently wrong with the first and he chose a nonquantifiable measure for the second, but Zuckerberg didn’t say these were acutally laws (and immutable ones at that).



    Dodge County Independent

    Last night, I got really riled up for the first time this autumn. No, unfortunately, it wasn’t for anything political. Nor was it for the Cubs total collapse; that just made me sad. No, it was for Ivan Maisel’s ridiculous defense of the BCS. Yes, that shows my priorities. I almost added to the chorus of voices calling him clueless, but then I realized—that’s probably what he was looking for.

    So I am instead going to focus on a story that wasn’t simply asking for as much attention. I find it interesting to scan the small town newspapers across the nation, likely because I grew up in a small town and I get a kick out of the activities, opinions, and culture that pervades that type of life.

    In the Dodge County Independent (out of Kasson, MN), Randy Carlsen, editor of the Dodge County Independent wrote last month:

    Presidential candidates are going after the young vote. They feel that youth will be the ticket to the White House. Try again!

    If either of the presidential candidates had any sense at all they would be going after the senior citizen vote.

    [...]

    When I turned 18 in August of 1973 I was excited about going to the polls and voting in my first presidential election. I think today most young people are more excited about turning 21 so they can go into a bar.

    Ouch. Of course, when we see the images of the campaigning and the prevalence of the youth vote in polling stations and political rallies, we may have reason to disagree. Well, it turns out, the candidates did have some sense. MSNBC reported:

    Youth vote may have been key in Obama’s win

    It is a bit disingenuous to say the youth of our nation are the lazy, unconnected ones. Instead of looking first to this commonly target demographic, consider the fact that after decades of civic isolationist creep, it is the youth that are using blogs (even if they are dead), YouTube, Flickr, Twitter, Facebook, et cetera to not only connect, but to push ideals and create communities. We are creating movements. A force for advancement that we haven’t seen the likes of in this nation for decades.

    That defines the youth of today. I guess there was something else that riled me up.



    Disney and London Underground: Quiet Innovators

    Disney and London Underground have very little in common, except perhaps that both are a part of vacation experiences. But they do have two very different but very inventive service offerings that you ought to learn about. And I am going to do a bit of a cop out on this one. Since I have already written about this with Wolff Olins, I will direct you to that work (it is much more in detail, and their are some nice applications that you can take with you as well). It includes a nice discussion with Lee Cockerell and a in-depth look at the Oyster Card. Take a look, you may enjoy it. If not, let me know why.

    In the meantime, I have come across a tumblr site that is very well written and quite enjoyable to read. It is called One Person Trend Stories, and it is worth a look. Today’s post was:

    … One Woman Takes a Stand Against Coffee Shops That Play Really Loud Music

    Yesterday it featured a man that refused to buy the iPhone and a few days ago we read of a woman that refused to look at her ex boyfriend’s Facebook updates. How can you refuse to read that?

    read more | digg story



    Ridgewater College?

    On April 30, 2008, three students at Ridgewater College, a small technical school in Minnesota, posted the following on Facebook:

    For our final project we need to do a networking experiment. We decided to see how far 3 average college students could reach out to within one week on facebook. We are begging you to join our group and then ask all your friends to join as well. This is only a one week experiment so you can just delete this after a week or so if you wish to.

    Exactly one week later, the group had nearly 700,000 members.

    I was asked to join from a friend that I had last seen some 8 or 9 years ago, and I did so and invited others. In the end I was asked probably 5 times to join this group. Many businesses would have to pay tens to hundreds of millions of dollars to get a like response from a similar audience. This trio did it with a few hours of work. I could find no news release or other types of promotion. It simply was passed from individual to individual as evidenced with the invitations to me and I would assume others. In the end, this experiment became a powerful example of weak ties in action.

    Years ago, Everett Rogers discussed the concept of weak ties when he mentioned,

    The informational strength of dyadic communication relationships is inversely related to the degree of homophily (and the strength of attraction) between the source and the receiver [ . . . ] This homophily and close attraction facilitate effective communication, but they act as a barrier preventing new ideas from entering the network.

    An innovation is diffused to a larger number of individuals and traverses a greater social distance when passed through weak ties rather than strong.*

    Rogers could not have seen the strength and speed of how the networks of our day have influenced the speed of adoption. Of course, many organizations have used viral marketing to some success, but the approach is lacking if it just focuses on this one aspect of networks. The end understanding shouldn’t be surrounding “viral” marketing. It is in understanding the culture within which a product or (more especially) a service exists. As I, and others, have talked before—marketing is not about simply selling “delight” or “solutions”, it is about sitting a product or service within a society as a tool for exchange, expression, and ultimately, identity. Understanding that role is the key to successful branding. We marketers need to understand better that product or service adoption has much to do with an individual’s place in society. Some have got it for some time; over 35 years ago Frank Bass wrote:

    Apart from innovators, adopters are influenced in the timing of adoption by the pressures of the social system.**

    As we truly understand how demographic groups communicate and how weak ties are connected, then success in marketing will not as much guesswork. Strategy and creativity will be able to truly mesh as we use these insights to access these networks—whether they be 20-something Facebook members or 60-something classic car restorers.


    *Rogers, Everett M.; “New Product Adoption and Diffusion,” The Journal of Consumer Research, Mar 1976, Vol. 2, No. 4, p 290 – 301.

    **Bass, Frank M.; “A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables,” Management Science, Jan 1969, Vol. 15, No. 5, p 215 – 227